skip to Main Content

First Cut: ADP National Employment Report for June has solid gains and a massive upward revision for May

The ADP National Employment Report for June had an increase of 2.369 million after a revised 3.065 million increase in May (previously a 2.760 million decrease). The June ADP data brings its numbers back in alignment with the BLS Employment Situation for May. It is also more-or-less on target with the survey median estimate for private payrolls when those numbers are released at 8:30 ET on Thursday (not Friday, which is a federal holiday in the US).

It is hard not to view the massive upward revision of 5.825 million in May as ADP fudging the numbers to make them look better. However, I will give them the benefit of the doubt as there may well have been a surge of late month rehirings as businesses got PPP funds and lifting of restrictions for some businesses enabled them to bring workers back as well. In any case, the months of May and June point to businesses anxious to resume activity and needed workers to do so.

The goods producing sector added 457,000 jobs in June. With the housing sector benefiting from low mortgage rates, construction gained in 394,000 jobs and manufacturers posted 88,000 as factories restarted after a period of pandemic related closings.

The service sector added 1.912 million jobs in June. Just over 50% was from 961,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality that probably preceded the reopening of some resort areas for Memorial Day. There was also strong hiring for trade, transportation, and utilities of 288,000, healthcare of 246,000, and “other” services of 215,000.

Back To Top