After this morning upside surprise in the May Employment Situation, two of the District Bank GDP Nowcasts got substantial upward revisions. The St. Louis Fed’s Real GDP Nowcast was up nearly 15 points to -34.97% and the New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast was up over 10 points to -25.48%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now was last updated on June 4 and won’t be revised until Tuesday, June 9. It is reasonably to anticipate it will be revised up from the -53.30% in its most recent reading.
Given the big gaps in the available data in building a forecasts for growth in the second quarter and that the Nowcasts can be widely divergent from each other, the most that can be reasonably said it that the contraction in second quarter growth will be substantial and of historic proportions.
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