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First Cut: Second estimate of 1Q GDP revised down, but the story is much the same

The second estimate of real GDP for the first quarter was down 5.0%, a downward revision from down 4.8% in the advance report.

If personal consumption expenditures were less of a negative in the second estimate, gross investment was more of a negative than previously through. The positive contribution from net exports was a tiny bit larger, while the change in private inventories was much more of a negative after annual revisions to the data.

The second look at conditions in the first quarter is still substantially the same in tone. These numbers won’t change the assessment of the performance in the January-March period. At this time the second quarter is reasonably well advanced and there is nothing in the data to suggest that when the advance estimate is reported at the end of July that it won’t be another negative quarter or one that will make the first look almost good in comparison.

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