The three Fed District Banks that publish a GDP Nowcast are all pointing in the direction of a deep contraction in activity in the second quarter. Each forecast is prepared a little differently, but the story seems similar. The St. Louis Fed’s Real GDP Nowcast was revised lower from the prior week (-48.07% from -40.42%) as was the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow (-42.80% from -34.90%). The New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast was actually revised up a tad (-31.05% from -31.20%) but wasn’t materially different from the prior week.
The average of the three forecasts is at -40.64% for the second quarter. Even allowing for the sometimes big miss in the Nowcasts versus the advance GDP estimate, the second quarter is going to be a jaw-dropper of a decline. However, the advance estimate for second quarter GDP is months away on July 30.
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