The ADP National Employment Report for April confirmed expectations for massive job losses. The ADP data put private payrolls down 20.236 million in the month after a downward revision to a decline of 149,000 in March (previously -27,000). The scale of the plunge in payrolls has no meaningful comparison other than to reflect the severity of the impact by measures to keep the COVID-19 pandemic in check.
The median expectation in a market survey was pretty much spot-on for the data. Given that it appears closely aligned with anticipation of the change in private payrolls in the Employment Situation for April at 8:30 ET on Friday, estimates for the government data are not going to be revised.
Unsurprisingly, nearly 80% of the declines were concentrated in the service sector with a drop of 16.007 million while goods producers were down 4.229 million. Among service providers, payrolls were down 8.607 million for leisure and hospitality, or about half the total. Among goods-producers, construction lost 2.477 million jobs as projects shutdown either due to lack of workers and/or materials that put activity on hiatus, or in outright cancellations of building with the homebuying in a tailspin.
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