As the data for February and March has accumulated, the three Fed District Bank Nowcasts for GDP have all been steadily revised lower. However, today is the first time all agree on one thing — the first quarter of 2020 is going to see negative growth.
The Nowcasts really aren’t the best forecast for GDP in terms of accuracy but they usually give a good indication of the direction of the report headline. These only incorporate available data, not assumptions for the missing pieces of the puzzle. The advance report on first quarter GDP is set for release at 8:30 ET on Wednesday, April 29. It will be interesting to see what the BEA makes of the direction of the data yet to come.
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