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Footnote: New York Fed Empire State Supplemental Survey shows bare majority seeing no effects from conronavirus

The New York Fed issues a special supplemental survey to its Empire State Manufacturing Survey (combined with its service sector Business Leaders Survey). The “overall net effect on your bottom line” responses showed 52.6% with “no effect” while 33.1% had a “slight downward effect” and 8.3% said the downward effect was “significant”. The survey was taken March 2 through March 10.

I would not be surprised if the New York Fed repeats the question next month and the responses are much more negative. Many businesses are doing what they can to limit the spread of COVID-19 by encouraging telework and outright shuttering. Manufacturers can’t do that to the same extent, but the lack of incoming orders in the short-term may allow them to drastically cut hours and/or do something similar to what the auto industry does in early summer with plant closures for retooling.

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