skip to Main Content

First Cut: Third estimate of 3Q GDP unrevised at 2.1%

The third and final estimate of third quarter GDP was unrevised at the headline at up 2.1%. The details included an upward revision to personal consumption to up 3.2% (previously up 2.9%) which brought its contribution higher to 2.12.  Spending on durables was revised down a bit to 8.1% and nondurables to 3.9%, while services got an upward revision to 2.2%. Government spending was a tad higher at up 1.7% (previously up 1.6%).

Nonresidential fixed investment was revised up, but was still a decline at down 2.3% (previously down 2.7%). Residential fixed investment was also revised lower to up 4.6% (previously up 5.1%).

The contribution from net exports showed more drag at -$653.0 billion or a contribution of -0.14 (previously -0.11). The change in private inventories was revised down to $67.0 billion which returned it to a negative contribution of -0.03 after a positive in the second estimate (previously 0.17).

With the fourth quarter 2019 nearly complete, the outlook for its growth is shaping up around the 2%-mark as well. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is presently at up 2.3%, but it is early days to estimate from the available data, particularly in trade and inventories. Consumer spending carried growth in the second and third quarters and is expected to do so again in the fourth.

Back To Top