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On the radar: Narrowing trade deficit should mean less drag from net exports in fourth quarter GDP

The release of the revised data on international trade in goods and services for October suggests estimates for fourth quarter GDP are going to see some upward revision based on less drag from net exports.

As of December 2, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the fourth quarter was up 1.3%. The New York Fed’s Nowcast was at up 0.8% as of November 29.

The deficit in trade in goods and services fell to $47.2 billion in October, the lowest since $44.4 billion in May 2018. Total exports declined 0.2% (goods down 0.6%, services up 0.5%) and total imports were down 1.7% (goods down 2.1%, services up 0.2%).

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