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First Cut: September Leading Economic Index down for second month in a row

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September dipped 0.1% after a revised down 0.2% in August (previously unchanged). Five components made positive contributions to the index, but these were outweighed by the size of the four negatives. One component — the average production workweek — was neutral.

The largest negative contribution was from the ISM new orders index (-0.17), followed by building permits (-0.08), and the interest rate spread (-0.04). The largest positive contribution was from stock prices (+0.11) and the Leading Credit Index (+0.09).

In the past 12 months, the index has been flat three times, down four times, and up five times. The index readings indicate that economic growth has lost momentum.


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