The August 5 week presents a breather after the excitement of the FOMC meeting and decision.
In fact, it is likely to be a very quiet week all around. Congress will officially begin its summer recess as of August 5 with an agreement regarding the budget and debt limit safely shelved until after the election in 2020. While the communications blackout period around the July 30-31 FOMC meeting ended as of midnight on August 1, public comments from Fed officials could be few and far between until after Labor Day. The economic data calendar is singularly empty in the week as well.
Monday sees the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July at 10:00 ET. Regional surveys of activity in the service sector point to continued modest-to-moderate growth, a contrast to the sluggish conditions for manufacturing. Services has seen some impact from higher tariffs and uncertain trade policy, but to a much milder extent.
The data on Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) for June at 10:00 ET lags the Employment Situation by a month. The level of job openings is expected to remain high, if less so than of late. Hirings should continue solidly. The pace of separations should be low for involuntary job losers and strong for voluntary job quits as many workers seek out better opportunities.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 3 at 8:30 on Thursday should maintain an underlying trend of filings for benefits somewhere in the 215,000-225,000 range, while insured rate of unemployment extends its 15 month string of 1.2% readings into a 16th month.
The Final Demand Producer Price Index for July at 8:30 ET on Friday is the first of the major inflation reports this month. It should be another month of tame readings overall. Energy prices were up somewhat in July and could add a bit of upward pressure after two months of pulling the headline lower.
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