The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index declined 0.3% in June to 111.5 after being unchanged at 111.8 in May. The index was dragged down by slow building permits, new manufacturing orders, and initial jobless claims. All of these are likely to show a reversal in July. Claims have since shown every sign of returning to a low trend, soft permits in June were on the volatile multi-unit sector and should recover in July, and manufacturing orders have been weak on aircraft which may do better in July when some pending contracts are signed.
In fact, six of the 10 components were positives in June, if not enough to overtake the four negatives. The largest positive contribution was from The Conference Board’s Leading Credit Index, followed by a longer production workweek, and consumer expectations.
Disclaimer: Whetstone Analysis provides commentary as a service to its subscribers. Whetstone Analysis is not responsible for, and expressly disclaims all liability for, damages of any kind arising out of use, reference to, or reliance on any information contained within the site. While the information contained within the site is periodically updated and every effort is made to ensure its accuracy, no guarantee is given that the information provided in this Web site is correct, complete, and up-to-date. Click here to read our full Disclaimer.