Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver the semiannual monetary policy testimony – formerly and still sometimes called the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony – on Wednesday and Thursday, July 10 and 11 starting at 10:00 ET.
The first day of testimony and Q&A is before the House Financial Services Committee. The House committee usually releases the Chair’s prepared remarks at 8:30 ET on the morning of the appearance. Interestingly, the first day of the testimony is the same day on which the minutes of the June 18-19 FOMC meeting will be released. However, the minutes won’t be out until 14:00 ET. This casts the importance of the minutes in the shade as the Chair may well have already answered any questions about the FOMC’s intentions, and done so without a three week lag in which some important economic reports were issued. That would include the June Employment Situation set for release at 8:30 ET on Friday, July 5 and which will be pivotal in assessing the health of the labor market, especially after the relatively meager 75,000 first reported for May.
The second day of testimony and Q&A is in front of the Senate Banking Committee. It is anticipated that the Chair’s prepared remarks will be exactly the same, but it is possible Powell will amend them verbally in one small respect. The CPI for June will be released at 8:30 ET that morning. It won’t change the wide purport or tone of the Chair’s remarks. Only on rare occasions has any adjustment been made between day one and day two of the testimony. However, it could mean a little aside will be added to take into account the latest information, especially if it suggests a change in momentum for present modest price pressures.
Disclaimer: Whetstone Analysis provides commentary as a service to its subscribers. Whetstone Analysis is not responsible for, and expressly disclaims all liability for, damages of any kind arising out of use, reference to, or reliance on any information contained within the site. While the information contained within the site is periodically updated and every effort is made to ensure its accuracy, no guarantee is given that the information provided in this Web site is correct, complete, and up-to-date. Click here to read our full Disclaimer.