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First Cut: Final estimate of first quarter GDP unrevised at up 3.1%; revisions generally small and offsetting

The third and final estimate of first quarter GDP held at up 3.1% with revisions to components generally small and offsetting between the second and third estimates. There was little change in net exports (-$606.7 billion from -$607.2 billion) and the change in private inventories ($121.7 billion from $123.7 billion). Personal consumption expenditures made less of a contribution (up 0.9% from up 1.3%) due to softer spending on services (up 1.0% from up 2.1%), while spending improved for nondurables (up 2.3% from up 2.0%) and durables (down -2.4% from -4.6%). Gross fixed investment improved (up 6.0% from up 4.3%). Government consumption was higher (up 2.8% from 2.5%).

At this point the second quarter is well advanced and expectations are for much slower activity in manufacturing and services, and declines in exports and imports. However, there may be a few bright spots in residential investment and spending on durable goods.

 

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