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First Cut: Second estimate of first quarter GDP up 3.1% on small revisions

The second estimate of first quarter GDP put growth at up 3.1%, little changed from the advance estimate of up 3.2%. The revision reflected slightly stronger personal consumption expenditures in durables and nondurables, slower fixed investment, and somewhat less support from net exports and the change in private inventories. On the whole, revisions were small and do not change the overall picture of solid expansion in the first quarter.

At this date, it is conditions in the second quarter which are of more concern to policymakers and markets. The collapse of the trade negotiations with China and resulting political response, massive flooding in parts of the Midwest which have disrupted the agricultural sector at the start of the planting season, and slower global growth point to a much weaker second quarter. In any case, the third estimate for the first quarter will be reported at 8:30 ET on Thursday, June 27.

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