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First Cut: 4Q 2018 GDP revised down to up 2.2% in third estimate from 2.6% in initial estimate

The third and final estimate for fourth quarter 2018 GDP was revised down to 2.2% growth (previously 2.6%). The downward revision was expected and the headline was in line with the median market forecast. Downward revisions were concentrated in durable goods consumption (3.6% from 5.9%), nondurables consumption (2.1% from 2.8%), and gross investment (3.7% from 4.6%) with lower readings for fixed investment and investment in nonresidential and residential properties. Net exports was little changed (-$658.9 billion after -$659.8 billion) and private inventories were unrevised ($107.5 billion).

The price indexes for the fourth quarter put overall personal consumption at an unrevised 1.5%, and core personal consumption up a tad at 1.8% (after 1.7%).

At this date, the first quarter 2019 is already nearly done and is likely to show growth was even more modest. The advance report will be released at 8:30 ET on Friday, April 26.

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