The Altanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations measure was unchanged at 1.9% in March after February, and close to the 2.0% in January. The underlying trend is close to the Fed’s 2% objective in early 2019 after a slightly more elevated series of readings in the second half of 2018.
The bottom line is likely that upward price pressures related to trade and tariffs the materialized in the spring and early fall of 2018 have now subsided and the fundamentals are visible again. Businesses expect inflation to be well-behaved and in line with the Fed’s outlook.
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