The four Fed District Banks that survey their respective service sectors all had positive news for February. The surveys are all different in content, but the main indicators pointed upward.
The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index rose to 2.0 in February, moving back into positive territory after two months of contraction.
The New York Fed’s current business activity rebounded to 13.7 in February from 0.0 (zero) in the prior month.
The Philadelphia Fed’s non-manufacturing index regained upward momentum at 10.0 in February from 1.0 in January and 7.7 in December. However, it remains well below most of 2018.
Richmond Fed’s service sector revenue index was up to 17 in February from 6 in January, and was the highest 18 in September 2018. Of the four reports, Richmond’s has the best correlation with the ISM number for non-manufacturing.
Some of the gains are probably attributable to the end of the partial federal government shutdown and contractors once again receiving payments for existing agreements and closing new contracts. Like the manufacturing sector, the pace of expansion has slowed but remains consistent with moderate growth. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for February is set for release at 10:00 ET on Tuesday, March 6. It may regain some of the ground lost over the past two months and rise from the 56.7 of January.
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